FSNAU Quarterly Food Security and Nutrition Brief

Issued June 12, 2009

Focus on Gu Season Early Warning
Key Issues
Growing Humanitarian Emergency (HE) for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs):  The depth and severity of the IDP Humanitarian Emergency is increasing.  The total number of ‘new’ IDPs increased by more than 100,000 people in May alone, which places the total number of new IDPs in Somalia at more than  1.3 million people.  Evidence suggests that this number may continue to increase in the coming months, as populations flee to safety both within and outside Somalia.  Fighting between the government and opposition forces has intensified since early May. While Mogadishu saw the worst violence, fighting also spread to several other areas and towns in southern and central Somalia, leading to increased civilian casualties, human rights abuses, renewed large scale population displacement, the destruction and confiscation of livelihood assets, and disruptions to economic activities and trade.  FSNAU will conduct an emergency IDP Impact survey as part of the upcoming post Gu ‘09 assessment.

Sustained Humanitarian Emergency (HE) in the Central Regions due to Prolonged Drought:   The drought in the central regions is intensifying, following five consecutive seasons of rain failure.   Already, roughly 60% of the population in the central regions (Galgadud and Mudug) is classified either in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis or Humanitarian Emergency due to drought, hyperinflation, and conflict, which have affected rural, urban and IDP populations.  Recent nutrition surveys (May ’09) confirm that the nutrition situation remains above the emergency threshold for all livelihoods and is classified as Critical, with global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates between of 15.3 - 18.0% and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rates between 2.6 - 5.5%.

Emerging Drought and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) in Northern Pastoral Areas:  There is an emerging drought in the north in the regions of Sool, Sanag and northeastern Toghdeer, due to recent rain failure, which is compounded by three previous seasons of relatively poor and patchy rainfall.  Pasture resources in areas which received moderate rains were quickly depleted due to large livestock in-migration from neighbouring rain deficit areas.  There is a high level of livestock off-take, as well as high abortion rates, culling of kids/lambs, and drought induced livestock diseases (See Livestock Section, page 6).
Falling Prices and Improved Urban Food Security: There is an improvement in the purchasing power and food access for most of Somalia’s urban population, particularly  urban poor and IDPs, as a result of lower cereal and other commodity prices and a reduction in the cost of minimum expenditure basket (MEB), especially in the central, north and northeast regions.   Since March ’09, the average cost of the MEB, or CPI, has reduced from 20-30% in the north, northeast and central regions.

Normal Crop Establishment and Production in the South is Improving Food Access:  Early indications are that Gu ’09 crop production will be near normal throughout most of southern Somalia, as a result of near normal to normal crop establishment and growth so far.  Exceptions include the Cowpea Belt (Galgadud and southern Mudug), Hiran, parts of Bakool, northern Gedo, and northwest agro-pastoral areas. Agricultural activities, such as sowing, first and second weeding, harvesting of off-season and early planted crops is leading to improved income opportunities, as well as promising improved access to own food production.  Local maize and sorghum prices continue to decrease in most main markets throughout Somalia (40% to 60% lower than May ’08), although they are still higher than the long-term trend.  Purchasing power, as measured by terms of trade between labour and cereal, has increased 15% - 60% when compared to the same month last year in most markets, as a result of decreases in cereal prices and increases in daily labour wage rates.

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