2008 POST GU TECHNICAL SERIES REPORT

Issued October 15, 2008


KEY FINDINGS
The findings of the FSAU, FEWSNET and partners post Gu ‘08 seasonal assessment confirm earlier reports (April ‘08 and June ‘08) that the humanitarian crisis is continuing to deteriorate at an accelerated rate. The current assessment estimates that 3.25 million people, representing 43% of the total population of Somalia, will need humanitarian assistance at least until the end of the year, which is a 77% increase since January 2008.
 
The unfolding humanitarian disaster is widespread and the level of human suffering and deprivation is shocking.  One in six children under the age of five is acutely malnourished, and the number is continuing to increase.  Rates of malnutrition in most of southern and central Somalia are above emergency threshold levels of 15% and in many areas are now greater than 20% and increasing. The number of severely malnourished children is continuing to increase in many urban towns and among internally displaced populations (IDPs).  In the north, where malnutrition rates are normally low and stable, the nutrition situation is also now deteriorating.
 
One of the main driving factors of the crisis is the escalating civil insecurity, which is not only leading to human suffering in terms of killings, violence, human rights abuses, and population displacement, but is creating an economic crisis that is now having a wider and more devastating impact on the broader population and humanitarian situation.  


The four key defining elements of the current crisis are:
 
•  Deepening Drought and Humanitarian Emergency in Central, Hiran and Bakool Regions: The number of rural people in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) continues to increase in these drought stricken areas, and is now estimated at 605,000 people.  This deterioration is due to another rain failure, now the fourth consecutive season, combined with hyperinflation of basic food and nonfood items, including water.
 
•  Growing Urban Food Security Crisis: Somalia is facing a new emerging urban food security crisis due to sustained hyperinflation of food and non food prices.  Food prices, both local and imported, are at record levels, having increased up to 340% within the last six months and 700% within the last year. Prices are still increasing and this trend is likely to continue.  More and more urban households are falling into Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE), as they cannot cope with the sustained increases in food prices, which are significantly eroding their purchasing power.  Currently, it is estimated that more than 705,000 urban people are either in AFLC (565,000) or HE(140,000), a 22% increase compared to estimates in April ’08.  
 
•   Concentration of People in Crisis in the Shabelle Regions: The Shabelle regions (Lower and Middle Shabelle) remain the worst affected in the current humanitarian crisis. The total number of people in crisis, including rural, urban, and IDPs in the Shabelle regions including Mogadishu, is estimated at 1.08 million people, which represents a 62% increase from January ‘08. The rural population in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE) is estimated at 475,000, while the urban is estimated at 110,000. In addition, these two regions are also hosting the largest concentration of new IDPs from Mogadishu, totalling more than 495,000 people. The Shabelle regions also have the highest caseload of acutely and severely malnourished children in Somalia, estimated at 34% and 38%, respectively of the total caseload for South Central and IDP in the north.
 
•   Emerging Pastoral Livelihood Crisis in the North: There is an emerging Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) in the north as pastoralists struggle to cope with another season of below normal rainfall, deteriorated water and pasture conditions and soaring water and food prices. To cope, pastoralists are selling more animals, splitting families and migrating with their livestock to areas where water and pasture is available.  As a result, an estimated 125,000 pastoralists are in AFLC in the Hawd, Sool Plateau, Kakaar-Dharor, and Nugaal Valley livelihood zones.   Depending on the outcome of the Deyr rains (Oct. - Nov. ‘08) and the rate of food and water prices increases in the coming months, there is a moderate risk that some of these households may fall into HE before the end of the year.
 
In addition to the full detailed sector and regional analysis there are three special focus articles on:
1.       The Rapid Urban Assessment Impact Survey Analysis

2.       Women in Crisis: The Effects of Mass Livestock Out-migration in Gu ‘08
 
3.      A comparison of the current situation to the 1991/1992 crisis
       Also within this Technical Series Report are the following appendices of interest:

 
Appendix 5.2: A time-series of the Integrated Phase Classification Maps for Somalia since 2004.  This provides a nice snapshot of changes in the humanitarian situation over time.
Appendix 5.3: The progression of the humanitarian situation by region from Gu ’07 to Deyr ‘07/08, including the IPC map, and a breakdown of populations in AFLC and HE by district and livelihood group

Click this link to download the full report (.pdf 11,200 KB)