The humanitarian crisis is continuing to deteriorate at an accelerated rate. The current assessment estimates that 3.25 million people, representing 43% of the total population of Somalia, will need humanitarian assistance at least until the end of the year, which is a 77% increase since January 2008. The dramatic increase in the number of people in need of assistance is attributed to a growing urban food security crisis, affecting more than 705,000 urban poor, and a deepening rural crisis reflected by a 64% increase in the rural population in crisis, from 850,000 earlier this year to more than 1,395,000 currently. In addition, the number of people displaced by conflict is continuing to increase and is now estimated at 870,000.

The unfolding humanitarian disaster is widespread and the level of human suffering and deprivation is shocking. One in six children under the age of five is acutely malnourished, and the number is continuing to increase.  Rates of malnutrition in most of southern and central Somalia are above emergency threshold levels of 15% and in many areas are now greater than 20% and increasing. The number of severely malnourished children is continuing to increase in many urban towns and among internally displaced populations (IDPs).  In the north, where malnutrition rates are normally low and stable, the nutrition situation is also now deteriorating.

One of the main driving factors of the crisis is the escalating civil insecurity, which is not only leading to human suffering in terms of killings, violence, human rights abuses, and population displacement, but is creating an economic crisis that is now having a wider and more devastating impact on the broader population and humanitarian situation. The impact of the worsening economic crisis, characterized by currency devaluation, disrupted trade and market activities, and hyperinflation of basic food and nonfood items, is further compounded by the overall poor performance of the Gu rains, which has resulted in below normal local cereal production and a deepening drought and water crisis in pastoral areas. Although Gu cereal production in Bay and parts of the Shabelle regions is expected to help mitigate food access constraints for rural communities in these areas, the overall impact on food prices will be insignificant. Food prices are expected to remain high, and therefore food access for market dependent households, including urban, rural poor, and IDP populations will become increasingly difficult through December this year.  

CLIMATE
In most regions of south and central, Gu 2008 rains were generally below normal. The onset of the rains was delayed about three weeks, except for pastoral areas in the Juba, parts of Gedo bordering Kenya and parts of Bay region and the season also ended in late May, earlier than expected.

CIVIL INSECURITY
Civil insecurity and conflict has steadily worsened over the last seven months, especially in the southern and central regions, and currently the security situation is the worst the country has experienced since the collapse of the government in the early 1990’s.

AGRICULTURE
The Gu ‘08 cereal production in southern Somalia, estimated at 84,750MT, of which 58% of the Gu PWA 1995 - 2007). Of the total cereal production, 50% is sorghum, 48% is maize and 2% rice. Although this year’s Gu production is significantly better than last year’s production, this Gu cereal production is the third lowest production in more than decade.

LIVESTOCK
Rangeland conditions in the drought-affected areas of Central, Hiran, Bakool and the rain deficit areas of Hawd Livelihood Zone (LZ), of Togdheer, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions, further deteriorated after another seasonal rain failure. Other areas also adversely affected by the poor Gu ‘08 rains include Gedo, Bakool, the Sool plateau and the Gabi Valley LZ of Sanaag.

MARKETS AND TRADE
Over the last year, the escalating conflict and political instability has led to uncontrolled and excessive printing of the Somali Shilling, in large part to fund the growing local conflict. As a result, newly printed Somali Shilling notes have flooded the markets, rapidly increasing the monetary supply and causing serious devaluation of the Somali shilling, which hit record low levels of exchange - depreciating 165% since January ’07.

NUTRITION
Based on the integrated Post Gu ‘08 nutrition situation analysis conducted by FSNAU and partners, survey results and the application of median rates, (referring to NCHS WHZ) approximately 180,000 children are estimated to be acutely malnourished in South Central Somalia and the IDP population in the north. Of the total malnourished children, 26,000 are estimated to be severely malnourished.